Electrical Load Forecasting Using a Hybrid Large Margin Nearest Neighbor Method

Ashoorzadeh, Alieh; Toloie Eshlaghy, Abbas; Afshar Kazemi, Mohammad Ali

doi:10.22075/mseee.2025.35788.1184

Electrical Load Forecasting Using a Hybrid Large Margin Nearest Neighbor Method

Document Type : Research Article

Authors

Alieh Ashoorzadeh ¹

Abbas Toloie Eshlaghy ²

Mohammad Ali Afshar Kazemi ³

¹ Department of Information Technology Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

² Department of Industrial Management, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

³ Department of Industrial Management, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

10.22075/mseee.2025.35788.1184

Abstract

Load forecasting is a key component of electric utility operations and planning. Because of today's highly developed electricity markets and rapidly growing power systems, load forecasting is becoming an essential part of power system operation scheduling. This paper proposes a new short-term load forecasting model based on the large margin nearest neighbor (LMNN) classification algorithm to improve prediction accuracy. The accuracy of many classification methods, such as k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), is significantly influenced by the technique used to calculate sample distances. The Mahalanobis distance is one of the most widely used methods for calculating distance. Numerous techniques have been used to enhance k-NN performance in recent years, including LMNN. Our proposed approach aims to solve the local optimum problem of LMNN, compute data similarities, and optimize the cost function that establishes the distances between instances. Before using gradient descent to determine the ideal parameter values for the cost function, we employ a genetic algorithm to shrink the size of the solution space. Additionally, our method's forecasting errors are contrasted with those of the BPNN and ARMA models. The comparative findings show how well the recommended forecasting model performs in short-term load forecasting.

Keywords

Short-Term Load Forecasting

Large Margin Nearest Neighbor

Distance learning

Genetic Algorithm

Subjects

Computer

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